By Hannan Hussain
Donald Trump's path to presidency isn't proving to be as easy as he would like. The former US President is facing a series of criminal and civil cases ranging from election fraud and illegal hush money payments to election subversion.
Together, there are about 91 felony counts across two state courts and two different federal districts. Despite leading in some polls for the November election, Trump still faces the very real threat of a prison sentence.
Significant media and political attention has focused on Trump's ongoing lawsuits. For the past month, he has been on trial in New York. Trump stands accused of falsifying business records to cover up hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election, and the trial is set to end before voters head to the polls.
Trump is also facing dozens of felony charges for allegedly illegally keeping classified government documents when he left the White House. He is also accused of obstructing the FBI’s efforts to get them back, and denies any wrongdoing.
Despite all these legal challenges, there is a solid chance that Trump could escape accountability. Here's how.
Election gamble
Rather than facing every charge in court, Trump appears keen to delay cases and trials beyond November. Recent polling suggests that Trump has a serious chance at regaining the presidency, and once in power, he could influence the prosecution by appointing officials of his choice in the Justice Department.
This tactic appears to be working in driving attention away from two of his federal cases: the 2020 election subversion trial and the alleged mishandling of classified documents.
Delaying also makes it easier for Trump to take matters into his own hands, and prevent any major charges from weakening his grip on power. He has made no secret of using his second term to pardon convicted criminals in connection to the 2021 Capitol riots. It would serve his immediate interests to take down cases that are staring him in the eye.
Part of his delaying strategy is to keep his loyalists and political appointees close.
That approach has already paid off at the state level. In Florida, a Trump-appointed federal judge recently scrapped a May trial date to his advantage. It is one of many postponements that continue to benefit Trump, and support his efforts to make accountability elusive.
It would be a daunting task for Trump to contest each charge on its merit in court. Instead, a more preferable alternative for him is to attack the credibility of the prosecution itself and keep those charges from being proven before November. That is precisely what his legal team is focused on.
Political stakes
Beyond legalities, Trump has a significant political stake in holding cases off until November. On the one hand, he is determined to dismiss them as a "witch hunt" to his voters and present lack of conviction as corroborating proof.
Trump has mounted such narratives to galvanise political support and consolidate his voter base in the past. He made widespread allegations of voter fraud in the 2020 elections, and was subject to an impeachment charge for inciting the 2021 Capitol riots. Trump dismissed the inquiry as a witch hunt.
The stakes at present are much higher: dissatisfaction with Biden is on the rise, and Trump is leading in five key battleground states despite all his legal troubles. With a real shot at regaining the presidency, why would Trump shy away from taking a gamble on the elections?
His Republican allies appear to agree. Major Republican party members have arrived in solidarity with Trump at the ongoing hush money trial, and the leading Republican in Congress, Mike Johnson, put his weight firmly behind Trump.
"It's impossible for anybody to deny, (who) looks at this objectively, that the judicial system in our country has been weaponised against President Trump," Johnson said.
Given the ex-president's second-term chances and his sway over the party, many Republicans have a vested interest in coming to his defence.
Trump wields significant influence over House Republicans, making it opportune to align with a figure that will tighten his grip on the party. Johnson's speakership is a case in point: he managed to survive an ouster attempt this month with Trump's support, underlining the impact of his endorsement both within and outside government.
Election denial
Trump also risks a jail sentence if he continues to attack or discuss the hush money trial. Such an outcome could deal a blow to top Republicans who are counting on Trump's street campaigning to cast more doubt over the 2024 presidential elections.
Major figures have refused to commit to accepting November's election results, and are keen to project Trump as victorious. On legal grounds, they cannot just ignore the results and claim Trump won. But they could amplify false allegations of voter fraud and cast doubt over the integrity of the elections.
Similar allegations set the stage for violent Capitol riots, underlining a major weakness in US democracy. By demonstrating their loyalty on the legal front, Trump's allies could secure his favour ahead of the elections, and use that goodwill to land prime positions.
Interestingly, Trump's Republican allies face no jail threats if they attack the hush money trial on his behalf. He has reportedly turned to them to step-up attacks against Michael Cohen, a star witness and former Trump "fixer" who testified to paying hush money on Trump's orders.
By attacking Cohen's credibility, Trump could frustrate trial proceedings and reiterate his claim that the cases were politically motivated.
Thus understood, Trump's principal goal is to render criminal proceedings as a distraction in the eyes of his voters and fellow party members. To accomplish this objective, he will take every opportunity he gets to drag out these cases until November, benefitting his loyalists in the process.
The message is clear: a former US president accused of insurrection can still manoeuvre his way to the White House, possibly unscathed.
It comes at a big cost for the United States. Trump is the first US president to ever face criminal charges, and his trials (and possible convictions) would have sent the powerful message that no one is above the law.
But Trump's ability to delay trials suggests that the system can be outmanoeuvred, despite evidence of illegal actions and charges of undermining US national security. As the prospects of conviction appear bleak at the highest level, the events raise serious questions about US democracy and its ability to dispense justice.
The message is clear: a former US president accused of insurrection can still manoeuvre his way to the White House, possibly unscathed.
About the author: Hannan Hussain is an international affairs specialist and author. He was a Fulbright Scholar of international security at the University of Maryland, and has consulted for the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington. Hussain's work has been published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, and the Express Tribune (partner of the International New York Times).
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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