By Omar Abdel-Razek
Some wars precipitate international polarisation, causing widespread damage and posing threats to global security and the economy.
Others, however, fade into the depths of collective forgetfulness. The Russian-Ukrainian war exemplifies the former, while the conflict in Sudan serves as a stark reminder of the latter.
Approximately two years ago, when the war erupted in Ukraine, it was often dubbed the "white man's war" due to its European location and the perceived adversary, Russia—a historical threat to the US and the West.
This perhaps was the main reason why the United States has committed over $71 billion in aid to Ukraine, with $43 billion allocated to military and security assistance, while the rest of the Western world has committed around $50 billion, according to reports.
This conflict prompted Europe and the US to reevaluate their military capabilities and increase defence spending. According to the UN, over 10,000 civilians lost their lives in Ukraine since the conflict's onset on February 22, 2022.
In Africa, where more than 35 armed conflicts persist, most are deemed inconsequential on the global stage.
The war in Sudan falls into this category. Over eight months since its eruption in April 2023, it claimed over 12,000 lives, leading to what Martin Griffith, the United Nations humanitarian chief, described as "one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history."
The conflict has displaced over 7 million civilians internally, with an additional 1.5 million seeking refuge in neighbouring countries.
“Media Coverage”
Surprisingly, the war in Sudan has not prompted a significant international intervention to compel the warring parties toward a political settlement.
Instead, it is often viewed as a "humanitarian crisis." One key reason is the perception of African wars in the Western world—primarily as non-state conflicts driven by ethnic and rivalry over resources.
International intervention is deemed unnecessary until these “tribal conflicts” reach a critical juncture. Media coverage for African wars, and ‘third-world’ conflicts in general, is sporadic, resurging only when the interests of the ‘global north' are directly impacted.
This was the case with the Somali civil war after the collapse of Siad Barri regime in 1990s. The Western world realised how precarious the situation in Somalia only when the Somali piracy became a real threat for the trade route in the Indian Occean.
This perception extends to the leaders of these wars, labelled as "warlords" motivated by ethnic, tribal and political interests as well as greed, with weak state control over military apparatuses.
In Sudan, the conflict is mainly between General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, head of the sovereign council and commander of the armed forces (SAF), and his former deputy, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hamedti.
Growing competition and mistrust between the two allies, who jointly staged a coup in 2021 against their civilian partners in a power sharing government, led to the current situation.
The recent incursion of Hemedti's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into Wad Madani, Sudan's third-largest city 100 miles southeast of the capital Khartoum, has thrust the Sudanese conflict back into the spotlight, though somewhat overshadowed by Israel's ongoing war on Gaza.
Over 300,000 individuals have been displaced, seeking refuge in the eastern regions of Gedaref, Sennar, and White Nile states, according to reports from aid agencies. Many of them are moving for the second time after leaving Khartoum and its suburbs.
Nightmarish scenario
As the RSF continues its advance, unsettling questions emerge regarding its backing, particularly considering troubling allegations involving looting, sexual violence, and what seem to be ethnic attacks.
The spectre of Sudan descending into a proxy war, akin to the situation in Yemen, looms large. Presently, and perhaps for the first time since the outbreak of hostilities, many Sudanese find themselves contemplating the unsettling possibility of living under the rule of the RSF in a substantial portion of Sudan.
It is a nightmarish scenario that they never envisioned during their fervent demonstrations for democracy and justice.
The spillover of the war in Sudan has the potential to escalate political instability within the already troubled region.
Egypt, home to approximately 4 million Sudanese and bound by deep cultural and historical ties spanning centuries, stands as the most impacted nation in this precarious situation.
Both, the SAF and the RSF frequently accuse some regional players of being deeply involved in the war to support their rival.
It is suggested that the recent surge in this ‘external intervention’ has fuelled the momentum that gave the RSF the upper hand in the past few weeks.
Consequently, the evolving dynamics in Sudan pose the risk of straining the relations among key allies in the region, who have each chosen to back different sides of the conflict.
The exclusion of Sudanese civilian political elites from the scene and the absence of a clear settlement vision for the warring parties, increase the risk of a forever war.
International and regional pressure to impose a settlement becomes imperative to avert further catastrophe and shape a Sudan that reflects the aspirations of its people, not the victors' distorted dreams of power.
The author, Omar Abdel-Razek, is a Sociologist and Former Editor at BBC Arabic. He lives and works in London.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT Afrika.
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