Benjamin Netanyahu no too need peace to show say him still matter for politics. Wetin e dey need na danger.

As Israel dey go election on October 27, Netanyahu find himself for one kind weak position wey rare.

Likud party dey behind for some recent polls, and the group wey dey govern no get sure way to get majority.

After years of war, Israeli people don tire, Netanyahu promise say "total victory" never show, and him talk say na only im fit secure Israel don dey tested.

Now, e look like say Netanyahu don find new enemy: Türkiye.

On August 18, Israeli warplanes attack Abu al-Duhur military airbase for northern Syria.

Netanyahu office talk say Syria dey prepare to allow Turkish forces deploy there, wey go threaten Israel security.

Türkiye deny sey dem no set up like that, and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani talk sey e don already tell Israel sey no be plan to build permanent Turkish base.

Wetin follow after nearly important like the strike self.

Instead make dem handle am as private military operation, Netanyahu turn am to public confrontation.

E give one-word warning to Türkiye, while Defence Minister Israel Katz accuse President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sey e dey do "dangerous adventures" for Syria.

But even people wey dey Israel security system find the strong talk alarming.

Israeli media report sey security officials dey worry sey Netanyahu and Katz dey risk unnecessary escalation with Türkiye and the confrontation don begin mix with election politics.

Washington sef no too comfortable. Tom Barrack, US ambassador to Türkiye and President Donald Trump special envoy for Syria, call the Israeli strike "unnecessary escalation".

Even more, e publicly talk say e fit be sey Israel dey "bait" Türkiye into confrontation because that kind clash fit get value for home politics before election.

US intelligence, Barrack talk, no support Israel claim sey Turkish military assets dey move into that base, although Israeli officials insist say dem get intelligence wey say otherwise.

Why Türkiye, why now?

But get deeper question pass Netanyahu electoral calculation.

To just describe Israel action as response to 'security concerns' fit mean say we accept Israel own definition of security without ask wetin that definition mean now.

Israel no dey respond to Turkish troops wey enter Israel land. Dem bomb Syria — wey be sovereign country — to pre-empt alleged Turkish military presence for Syrian ground.

That difference matter.

Israel don occupy Syrian land, dem set wetin dem dey call security zone beyond internationally recognised border, dem don repeatedly bomb Syrian military infrastructure and insist say dem free to operate militarily inside the country.

But when Syria dey try rebuild military capacity, or dey form relationship with another regional power, Israel still dey present that as threat to its security.

This contradiction show bigger problem for Israel regional doctrine: Netanyahu imaginary idea of absolute security for Israel dey look like e require make everybody wey dey around remain insecure forever.

Weak Syria dem fit tolerate; but if Syria fit defend im airspace, e go become potential threat.

Lebanon suppose no get forces wey fit deter Israeli military action. Iran military capacity suppose dey reduced. Palestinians suppose remain almost defenseless as dem dey live under occupation and repeated Israeli military attacks.

Now, dem say Türkiye influence for Syria suppose dey contained.

Security, if you understand am like this, no be just protecting Israel from attack again.

E mean to keep strong Israeli military superiority and freedom to strike neighbouring countries without make those countries fit stop am.

Türkiye dey present particular problem because you no fit put am under that kind hierarchy.

Na major regional power, na NATO member and get the transatlantic alliance second-largest army.

Türkiye no be another place where Israel fit use military pressure turn am to political submission; any try to force am go meet military, political and regional power wey Netanyahu no fit just bomb comot.

Na here Israel regional doctrine and Netanyahu personal political interest join.

Netanyahu no need invent Türkiye as enemy. Dem get real disagreements between Ankara and Tel Aviv about Gaza, Syria and future balance of power for the region.

E only need turn those disagreements to something bigger: another existential threat to Israel.

Him election campaign don already dey do exactly that.

For Tel Aviv, Likud billboards don turn national security to crude cult-of-personality wey center on Netanyahu: "Dem want make Netanyahu lose. Make you no let dem win."

Think how that message dey really mean.

E compress foreign policy, national security and Netanyahu personal political survival into one point: Israel enemies want Netanyahu comot; so, if dem remove Netanyahu, na victory for Israel enemies.

This one don central for Netanyahu politics for years. E don build persona of 'Mr Security', leader wey dey unique to protect Israel wey dem say full of existential threats.

Enemies dey change. But the political idea still dey the same.

But this time Netanyahu get wahala.

After years of war, Hamas alone fit no longer enough. Gaza don kpeme, tens of thousands Palestinians don die, but Netanyahu promise of "total victory" never show.

War never bring the decisive political or strategic finish wey e dey promise Israelis.

From hero to zero

So Netanyahu need something bigger. But this time e don raise stakes reach level wey e fit pick enemy wey e no fit intimidate, dominate or control.

The political story fit change from 'I dey fight Hamas' to something bigger: Israel dey face emerging regional network of powerful enemies, danger dey grow, and only I get the experience and resolve to confront am.

Despite all him bravado, Netanyahu posture towards Türkiye look more like political theatre than true preparation for war.

Full-scale conflict with Türkiye no be something wey e fit honestly start or control; e just need behave as if e fit, because the show of confrontation dey serve him political purpose.

Politically, e need something wey less than war but pass peace. E need politics of permanent threat.

A powerful enemy. Danger wey dey come. And Netanyahu again dey present himself as the indispensable man wey stand between Israel and disaster.

But e get one disturbing thing about to dey discuss this only as Israeli electoral strategy.

Israel domestic politics no stay only inside Israel borders.

Palestinians sabi this more brutally pass anybody. Syrians feel am when Israeli aircraft strike their country.

Lebanese civilians don experience am through repeated wars and bombardment. Iran now don experience direct Israeli military confrontation.

Human beings wey dey receive Israeli military power no dey experience Netanyahu political calculations as opinion polls, campaign slogans or electoral strategy.

Dem dey experience dem as bombs. And get even bigger contradiction wey Israel use the word 'security' no suppose hide again.

No country fit dey insist forever say im security require say neighbours make dem weak, fragmented, occupied, disarmed or no fit defend themselves, and at the same time call every try by those neighbours to get real power an existential threat.

That one no be just demand for security. Na demand for regional dominance.

Netanyahu don turn that doctrine to very effective political tool. If Israel suppose always dey surrounded by danger, then Israel must always need leader wey go present himself as uniquely capable to confront am.

Na why Türkiye matter politically now.

To try save him political future, Netanyahu don push threat narrative reach level wey no realistic to do true action, so e dey resort to more and more ugly provocations against Türkiye.

Him rhetoric purposely louder than the real power behind am: e need show say confrontation dey, not the war wey him words dey imply.

Between now and October, wetin Netanyahu need na enemy strong enough to scare Israeli voters — and crisis big enough to make him own political survival look like na same thing with Israel survival.

And as election near wey fit end him long dominance for Israeli politics, the most dangerous question no fit be whether Israel don find one.

Na whether Netanyahu politically fit afford not to get one.

Disclaimer: The views wey the author express no necessarily represent the opinion, viewpoint and editorial policy of TRT Afrika.