By Mazhun Idris
As 2023 trundles along its indeterminate path of shocks, surprises and an occasional sliver of hope, democracy seems to have been dragged back in its journey in parts of Africa.
A spate of coups d’état, two of them this year, seems to have reconfigured the fate of democracy with a growing number of military juntas.
In just three years, democratically elected governments have been toppled in streaks – in Mali (2020 and 2021), Chad and Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger and Gabon (2023). Several coup attempts have also been reported in some other countries.
Beyond the machinations of putschists, and beneath the veneer of marginal democratic gains, Africa appears to be burdened under the weight of weak institutions, poor processes, and other developmental challenges, all of which manifest in problematic elections and fragile economies.
In some African regions, democracy as a model is fast unravelling in more ways than one. The idea of having periodic elections under a democracy is to keep sovereignty with the people, and offer them an avenue to occasionally change their leadership.
Some analysts say sacrosanct principles such as establishing the rule of law, and transparency and accountability in governance still aren't effectively entrenched in some African democracies.
Dr Joseph Ochogwu, a professor of international relations and strategic studies and director general of Nigeria's Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, sees democracy being reduced to a sham by indiscriminate abuse of the electoral process.
"What is happening in some African countries in the name of democratic elections are woefully short of genuine constitutional democracy, a free and fair contest, credible representation, and rule of law," he tells TRT Afrika.
Despite the huge cost of elections in Africa, which at times prompts some governments to suspend polling by citing a funds crunch, some critics are beginning to question the rationale behind the kind of democracy being practiced in Africa.
Economic equation
Experts believe it is a scary paradox that sections of the masses in Niger, Gabon or Mali seem happy at the fall of elected leaders, gullibly seeing them as scapegoats.
The only reasonable explanation for this is that people in these countries have faced decades of harsh socio-economic realities under the democratic system that is supposed to guarantee their economic well-being.
Prof Hudu Ayuba Abdullahi of the department of political science at Ahmadu Bello University in Nigeria's Zaria has a straightforward explanation. "People that are blinded by suffering will celebrate what appears to be the end of one suffering, even as they don’t understand that is the beginning of another," he says.
"Why do citizens celebrate coups or the fall of elected leaders in many African countries? People are fed up with unending economic hardship while they watch elected political leaders living in luxury and driving posh cars."
Most analysts are in consensus that advancing democratic gains in Africa first entails taking cognisance of economic inequality, skewed resource distribution, and the elite's capture of state apparatus, which inevitably undo the constitutional guardrails of the rule of law and electoral justice.
Many African political challenges have economic underpinnings such as control of natural resources and fiscal federalism, all of which relate to equity beyond dispersing political power.
Armed groups often begin as crusaders seeking a fair share of economic resources for their geographical entities.
‘Juntas inability’
The economic conditions in African countries have a lot to do with structural deficiencies. But successive governments, even when formed by the opposition, tend to centralise governance in order to reconfigure a new pyramid of power, experts say.
Every nation state the world over strives to ensure the economic well-being of its people. Once the masses fail to see improvement in their life, and instead see unemployment and inflation, they have nobody to blame other than the political leadership.
If the reality of economic hardship is what triggers erosion of democracy in Africa, the military juntas that are being embraced as saviours possibly cannot be trusted to bring about any meaningful change, analysts caution.
"Sadly, the military can't bring change because it doesn't have the capacity to do so. In Mali, for instance, instead of fighting and defending the state, the military seems to be now saddled with the challenges of governance," Dr Ochogwu tells TRT Afrika.
Prof Abdullahi has similar views, tempered by the fact that the tide seems to be flowing the opposite way.
"The military junta cannot solve an economic problem as it is beyond their area of expertise. Yet, there is no way you can make the people see this fact," he rues.
