An impending "super" El Nino is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank's top climate expert told Reuters.
Forecasters are warning that the El Nino weather pattern — which often drives severe droughts, flooding and storms in Africa — could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue.
As well as the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also be undermined if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay the connected loans.
"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent," Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview.
Years to recover
The AfDB's most recent forecasts in May predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2% economic growth this year, rising to 4.4% in 2027 assuming the US-Israeli war on Iran eases.
That, however, was before forecasts of a "super" or "Godzilla" El Nino were made.
Nyong's estimate of the likely $10 to $20 billion hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Nino. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate but warned it was unlikely to be a one-off either.
Drought conditions, which much of the Sahel region has been suffering from in recent years, may persist, while Mozambique's experiences after Cyclone Idai in 2019 show it can take years to recover from major storms.
Farmers face income loss
The 2023 to 2024 El Nino event caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa. These conditions led to widespread crop failures, surging food prices, and record-breaking sea-level spikes along the continent's coastlines.
The AfDB has estimated Africa's farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fishing industries could be hit hard too due to rising sea temperatures and storms.
"When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back," Nyong said. "We don't want our countries to slide into poverty."
An October 2025 report from the United Nations estimated that by 2035 developing countries will collectively need around $365 billion in a year to tackle climate change, yet international public adaptation finance was just $26 billion in 2023. Nyong said Africa will now need as much as $100 billion this year given the expected El Nino strength.
Humanitarian pressures
Humanitarian pressures would add to the problems, Nyong said, and AfDB had identified Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and even Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe impacts.
"When this El Nino comes there is going to be mass migration," he said, adding that the price of maize — a key food staple in many affected countries — was expected to double. "You are not going to stay put, you are going to move," he said.
The resulting resource shortages and competition for grazing land and water could exacerbate existing fragility in vulnerable regions, Nyong said, with agricultural losses seen at around $327 million and fisheries productivity set to fall 1% to 4%.
