France will beat Spain to lift the World Cup trophy on July 19 and five-time winners Brazil are expected to be the biggest flops, according to a Reuters survey of economists who said football was still harder to call than inflation.
For 160 respondents from nearly every continent, this poll conducted once every four years is a welcome break from their macroeconomic forecasting in an era of wars, energy shocks and revived "transitory" versus persistent inflation debates.
Their brief this time is the biggest World Cup yet - a 48-team tournament spanning 104 matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico - the first staged across three countries.
Les Bleus drew 35% of the vote in the May 11-June 5 poll to add a third star to their badge, edging Spain on 31% - broadly in line with betting platforms like Polymarket - a result that would return Europe to the pinnacle of international football.
France's Didier Deschamps would become the first coach since Italy’s Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cups - and the only one to do so after also lifting the trophy as a player in 1998.
‘France well equipped’
Argentina, reigning champions and top of the current FIFA world rankings, Portugal and England rounded out the top five choices.
"After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time," said Cathal Kennedy, senior economist at RBC and based in London.
"The squad retains a number of members of the team that reached the final who are now reaching the peak of their careers, complemented by the emergence of some members of the Paris St Germain side."
"Added to that, they should have a well-rested Kylian Mbappe to call on for the tournament."
Mbappe, who just finished another prolific season at Real Madrid, was the poll’s pick for both the Golden Ball, awarded to the tournament’s best player, and the Golden Boot for top scorer.
He only just pipped England captain Harry Kane, the European Golden Shoe winner after a career-best 61-goal season with Bayern Munich.
There's likely another milestone within reach for both.
Expensive tickets, accommodation and cross-country travel have raised fears this could be the costliest World Cup yet for fans.
